![]() ![]() For the math folks, you could think of this graph as showing the second derivative. Low red means positive tests are trending up slowly. High red means positive tests are trending up quickly. Green means positive tests are trending down. Red means positive tests are trending up. This graph presents the same information as the smoothed testing graph, but in a form that makes it easier to see the rate at which positive tests are trending up or down. The final graph I review for national trending is the 7-day delta graph. Thus the ratio of deaths to positive tests decreased. This is because vastly more testing was conducted after mid-May, and a higher percentage of infections were caught. The red curve still follows it, but the ratios are completely different. But after about mid-May, the blue curve shoots up. If you look at the left third of the chart, you can see the red curve follows the blue curve, lagging slightly behind. This chart also makes it easy to see that the relationship between positive tests and deaths is not what it once was. If you look at the blue lines around Labor Day, you can see a conspicuous dip followed by a spike. Sometimes there are exceptions, such as severe underreporting around holiday weekends. You can see that in the “hills and valleys” of this graph. ![]() We typically see a weekly reporting pattern of underreporting on Sunday and Monday and overreporting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The main thing I look for in this graph is unexpected noise in the data. The axis is scaled so that the positive test scale is 10 times the deaths scale. The blue lines represent positive tests, and the red lines represent deaths. The most foundational graph is the one that shows the raw data on daily positive tests and deaths, as shown below. I include the charts that I personally find useful in understanding the status and trends of the pandemic. The right graphs can be tremendously revealing - if you know what to look forĪs one of the contributors to the CDC’s Covid-19 “Ensemble” forecast model, I update a set of state and national graphs several times a week on my Covid-19 Spin Free Data Center. ![]()
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